Our top five insights of 2009 that proved correct...
The H1N1 Flu "Pandemic": Our prediction of the progress and severity of the 2009 H1N1 flu proved better than most governmental health agencies and media outlets. We predicted that the flu's progress would best be prognosticated by the 1977 H1N1 outbreak. In both 1977 and 2008-09 H1N1 abruptly reappeared after years of absence as it shifted both genetically and demographically affecting younger age groups. The attack rate and virulence (severity) of these new strains did not cause the expected morbidity and mortality well beyond the typical annual range. Concern was ramped up by the WHO and others who repeatedly referenced the pandemics of 1918, 1957 [H2N2] and 1968 [H3N2] and a doomsday scenario.
The H1N1 Flu "Pandemic": Our prediction of the progress and severity of the 2009 H1N1 flu proved better than most governmental health agencies and media outlets. We predicted that the flu's progress would best be prognosticated by the 1977 H1N1 outbreak. In both 1977 and 2008-09 H1N1 abruptly reappeared after years of absence as it shifted both genetically and demographically affecting younger age groups. The attack rate and virulence (severity) of these new strains did not cause the expected morbidity and mortality well beyond the typical annual range. Concern was ramped up by the WHO and others who repeatedly referenced the pandemics of 1918, 1957 [H2N2] and 1968 [H3N2] and a doomsday scenario.
Sanofi Buys A Sales Force & Trade Channel: Sanofi's purchase of Chattem was the subject of a OTCPN press release offering insights not found elsewhere. We see this marriage of convenience as part of Sanofi's global tactical plan to bolt-on acquisitions of various OTC (and Rx) companies worldwide thereby downshifting the risk profile of their corporate portfolio. Nevertheless, the primary purpose of the Chattem purchase is as a conduit to sell OTC Allegra into the US trade. We remain skeptical that this unusual partnership of big Europharma and a thin, opportunistic Southern brand acquirer, while accretive, will result in long term synergies beyond their cash-rich balance sheet, high gross margins, and immediate access to the trade channel.P&G's Healthcare Product Failures: Early in 2009 we perceived a systemic problem affecting the quality and design of P&G's healthcare products. Sure enough P&G didn't disappoint as they blundered into a string of self-inflicted, corroborating examples of this predilection.
Tylenol's Vulnerability: Up until recently J&J's Tylenol was the Tiger Woods of analgesics - squeeky clean and brillently effective. In 2009 the hidden vulnerabilities of the brand, that were always known to insiders, began to expose themselves. Tylenol suffered a series of bad press moments including a sweeping FDA mandate to reduce the drug's dose exposure across the board. We saw this coming, but not the later plant contaminations, nor the reports of unexpected effects on the immune system and asthma.
Topical Analgesic Patch Uncertainty: Early in the year we pointed out that the pending FDA external analgesic monograph closure and the judicial docket of the LecTec patent infringement suit had the potential to disrupt the analgesic patch category. On the legal front we strongly favored the plaintiff, which proved correct, as several of the co-defendants settled with LecTec. One defendant (Chattem) is now acquired by deeper pockets (Sanofi) while one other remains {J&J]. On the regulatory front we were also correct in predicting pending monograph closure and that the FDA would balk at giving patches a free pass by inclusion.
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